STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT:
THE INTERNET

Prepared by

Mr. Charles Swett
Assistant for Strategic Assessment

Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and
Low-Intensity Conflict
(Policy Planning)

Room 2B525, the Pentagon 703-693-5208 17 July 1995

Note: The views expressed in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the policies or positions of the Department of Defense.

CONTENTS

STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT: THE INTERNET

Abstract

The political process is moving onto the Internet. Both within the United States and internationally, individuals, interest groups, and even nations are using the Internet to find each other, discuss the issues, and further their political goals. The Inte rnet has also played an important role in recent conflicts. As a result, overseas segments of the Internet can be a useful tool for DoD, both for gathering and for disseminating information. By monitoring public message traffic and alternative news source s from around the world, early warning of impending significant developments could be developed, in advance of more traditional means of indications and warning. Commentary placed on the Internet by observers on the scene of low-intensity conflicts overse as could be useful to U.S. policymaking. During larger scale conflicts, when other conventional channels are disrupted, the Internet can be the only available means of communication into and out of the affected areas. Internet messages originating within regions under authoritarian control could provide other useful intelligence. Public messages conveying information about the intent of overseas groups prone to disrupting U.S. military operations can provide important counterintelligence. The Internet cou ld also be used offensively as an additional medium in psychological operations campaigns and to help achieve unconventional warfare objectives. Used creatively as an integral asset, the Internet can facilitate many DoD operations and activities.

Background

In the last few years, the Internet has become a household word. After a long period of relative obscurity when it was solely the domain of technically oriented individuals, the Internet has burst onto the national scene and is playing an increasingly imp ortant role in an ever-widening spectrum of activities involving an exponentially increasing number of people. It is now in the mainstream. Having a tangible effect on in the social, cultural, economic, and political lives of millions, the evolution of th e Internet is taking it into roles completely unanticipated by its original designers. Rather than merely ''fitting in" to pre-existing social processes, the Internet is actually transforming the nature of the processes themselves.

The Internet has been increasingly involved in politics and international conflict. Local, state and national governments are establishing a presence on the Internet, both for disseminating information to the public and for receiving feedback from the pub lic. Candidates for elective office are conducting debates over the Internet. Organizers of domestic and international political movements are using the Internet. It has played a key role in Desert Stomm, the Tiananmen Square massacre, the attempted coup in Russia, the conflict in the former Yugoslavia, and in the challenge to authoritarian controls in Iran, China, and other oppressive states. The Internet is playing an increasingly significant role in international security, a role that is potentially im portant to DoD.

Objectives

The goals of this strategic assessment are to:

Scope

The discussion in this assessment is non-technical. It is intended for audiences who are both familiar and unfamiliar with the Internet. Topics more relevant to social and commercial use of the Internet than to uses directly related to national security a re provided in order to establish an appreciation for the broader importance of the Internet in the daily affairs of individuals and institutions, and its potential for reaching wide audiences.

What is the Internet?

The Internet is an enormous global network of computers. Often called a "network of networks," it integrates thousands of dissimilar computer networks worldwide through the use of technical standards that enable all types of systems to interoperate. Indiv iduals connected to the Internet using their desktop computers can perform the following functions (depending on the sophistication of the "host," or local Internet node, to which they are connected for service):

There is no central authority managing the Internet. Participation is on a voluntary and cooperative basis, requiring only that technical standards be followed to establish a presence on the net. The Internet Society in Fairfax, Virginia plays an integrat ing role and sets technical standards. Funding for the communication links is provided partly by governments (e.g., the U.S. National Science Foundation has been funding the national high-speed backbone) and partly by non-governmental institutions such as universities and corporations.

Although it is difficult to obtain accurate estimates, it is believed that currently there are approximately twenty million individuals worldwide with access to the Internet. Projections indicate that approximately one hundred million will have access by the year 2,000. The following factors are fueling this vast increase:

Bulletin Board Systems

A Bulletin Board System (BBS) is a personal computer running sophisticated but inexpensive software, to which people with their own computers can connect over a phone line. Generally available 24 hours a day, a BBS allows callers to read, reply to, and or iginate e-mail, read text files (bulletins), and exchange other kinds of files such as computer programs and graphics. Virtually anyone, including high school students, can set up and operate a BBS. International e-mail networks linking BBS's worldwide ha ve developed, through which local callers can exchange messages with others of similar interests around the globe. There are roughly fifty thousand BBS's in the U.S., and the number is increasing rapidly.

A BBS generally has a specific theme, such as ham radio, fishing, religion, or computer games. Numerous BBS's have political themes. In the Washington area, there is a BBS run for the NRA providing anti-gun control information, a BBS for the "Christian Ri ght," a BBS providing conservative critiques of alleged liberal bias in the news media ("AIM Net," for Accuracy in Media), BBS's supporting gay rights and women's rights, and various others. Anyone can write a manifesto or other political material and pla ce it online using a BBS, making it available to a wide audience. BBS's are slowly connecting to the Internet. This trend is slow because most BBS's are run by individuals as a hobby at their own expense, and the cost of connecting a BBS to the Internet i s still relatively high. However, even standalone BBS's have many of the same functions as the Internet, and their political role can be similar.

Current Trends

One important trend is the growth in the proportion of professionals having personal e-mail addresses on the Internet. Increasingly, business cards include not just voice and fax phone numbers, but Internet addresses. This trend is so strong that many pro fessionals now assume that their counterparts have an Internet address to which they can send e-mail. Rather than considering an Internet address to be a luxury, not having one is coming to be viewed as a handicap, comparable to not having a fax. Individu als and organizations without Internet access increasingly risk being left out of important discussions and processes taking place via the Internet.

The internal use of e-mail within organizations, by putting all personnel in direct contact with each other regardless of organizational rank, has tended to "flatten the pyramid," i.e., functionally change the organization to a certain extent from a hiera rchial one to a horizontal one. There have been reports of this occurring even within a military organization. Along with the individuals who have Internet addresses comes their own expertise. Millions of experts in various fields, from medicine to plumbing, conduct business over the Internet and use if for recreation and information exchange, making available a v ast potential storehouse of specialized knowledge. In the experience of the author, much of this knowledge is available for the asking.

Commercial online databases containing every form of information imaginable are now accessible (mostly for a fee) via the Internet. "Open source intelligence" originates largely from these databases. Public library catalogs, including the one belonging to the Library of Congress, are available for free over the Internet.

Increasingly, authors of magazine and newspaper articles include their Internet addresses in their bylines, allowing readers to contact them directly to provide their reactions or ask for additional information.

Federal, state, and local governments are establishing a presence on the Internet. Dozens of Federal agencies provide public information online. These agencies are all reachable through a service in Virginia called Fedlink. Fedlink acts as a gateway throu gh which the general online public can reach any agency's system. The Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs has just implemented a World Wide Web service containing current and historical news releases, daily summaries, press adv isories, transcripts, and contracts. Information on this service flows one way, however, from DoD to callers. Provision has not been made to accept feedback from callers. OSD C3I is building its own"World Wide Web server," an Internet computer that provid es graphics-based information publicly over the Internet. This server will provide OSD organizational information and an online version of the Early Bird.

Local governments are increasingly establishing "Freenets," which are online information services open to the public. These services provide local government documents and news, and are a medium for discussions among callers about local issues. Internet users interested in particular subjects participate in "conferences" devoted to those subjects. These conferences are collections of messages embodying extended discussions about those subjects. Currently, there are roughly ten thousand conferenc es available on the Internet in various forms. Conferences exist for virtually every subject known to man. On these conferences, one can find unique expertise, experience, information, and sources of advice unavailable elsewhere so conveniently and at suc h low cost. Some of the most energetic types of conferences are those devoted to current events and political debate. At any time, there is an enormous volume of discussion about the news of the day. Opinions span the entire political spectrum, from far l eft to far right, and originate in many nations. Whenever an important event occurs, such as a national election or a major conflict, even a natural disaster, there is an almost "deafening roar" of responses on the Internet. Participants in the internatio nal conferences include journalists, professors, political analysts, and politicians.

Internet conferences provide a unique medium for interpersonal communication on a massive scale

Many of the issues addressed in these conferences focus on current military operations in which DoD is involved. Often, incorrect statements of fact, misrepresentations of the U.S. position, and gross distortions of situations are made, which is not surpr ising. However, the vast size of the audience for these misstatements amplifies the magnitude of their effect on public opinion.

In global terms, Americans are by far the heaviest users of the Internet, and the proportion of American homes with personal computers and modems is increasing quickly. Internet use in Europe is less prevalent but still significant, and is increasing rapi dly. In the undeveloped world, particularly in some of the very nations where some future conflicts are likely to occur, few individuals other than government officials, business persons, educators, and some professionals have access to the Internet. Howe ver, all South American nations and about two-thirds of all African nations have at least some Internet connectivity."[Fineman] There is an international project whose goal is to spread the Internet to the undeveloped world, but progress is likely to be s low.

The threat from "hackers" and computer viruses is always present. Internet security is one of the greatest concerns of organizations using it, particularly the Department of Defense. Malicious tampering with government computers could seriously disrupt va rious operations if sufficient countermeasures are not built in. A strategy called ''firewalls'' has been developed, whereby a second computer (a firewall) is placed between an organization's own computer and the Internet communication lines, to help cont rol access and prevent "break-ins." It has recently been found that even a triple firewall architecture has been successfully penetrated by hackers.

With respect to viruses, there is a kind of arms race spiral, whereby anti-virus software writers improve their software to protect against a newly discovered type of virus, the virus writers respond by creating a new virus that can circumvent that new pr otection, and so on.

The Internet and Domestic U.S. Politics

The Clinton Administration has embraced the Internet as a means of direct political communication with the electorate. Using the President's e-mail address, president@whitehouse.gov, anyone with access to the Internet can send a message to the President's staff. Some 5,000 e-mail messages come into the White House every week. Interns read every message, tally them by issue and by opinion expressed, and send a standard response. This is part of a relatively so phisticated political strategy:

The White House actually uses the content of all this e-mail:

They see interaction with the public via the Internet as a positive force:

This direct, two-way interaction between the pinnacle of the Federal government and ordinary citizens is highly significant. The bypassing of congressional representation, the poll takers, and the news media tends to counteract any distortions or filterin g that those entities might have otherwise added. This is probably the first time this phenomenon has occurred on any appreciable scale in the history of the nation. If it continues to grow over the long term, it can fundamentally alter the political proc ess. However, future Administrations may not put so much emphasis on this mechanism.

It is not only the American public that uses the Internet to communicate with the White House. On February 4, 1994, Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt sent an e-mail message to President Clinton, the first head of state to do so:

Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has established a program to make electronic versions of all draft legislation available on the Internet. This will allow the subset of the electorate who has Internet access to evaluate it for themselves, and will allow them to make highly informed inputs to their representatives in Congress. It will also place those without access in a relatively weaker political position, because they will generally not be able to know the details or independently ascertain their sign ificance. The theme of the Internet as a threat to the established mass media is a common one in the recent literature.

Many newspapers and magazines are timid about going online. Others, believing that they had better go online to retain their relevance, are finding for the first time in their entire history that they are subject to strong, serious criticism:

Another popular concept is "electronic democracy," whereby American citizens can become more influential participants in their government's decisions by making their views known via the Internet:

Some advocates of electronic democracy envision online elections and referendums:

Other observers are more skeptical:

Still others fear the potential for Big Brother types of control of the political process:

The Internet has already played in important role in several local elections. In these elections, the candidates were essentially forced online and put under the spotlight of determined questioning by voters. In another episode,

Many other political activists have discovered the utility of the Internet for sharing information and organizing their activities. For example,

One activist has actually published advice for online political activists, in the form of ten "Rules," summarized below

The ability via the Internet to efficiently reach large numbers of individuals who are potential political actors plays to the strengths of special interest groups and political action committees. The Internet is thus highly attractive to activists who va lue a populist approach as opposed to a republican approach that emphasizes electing representatives and influencing their positions. Examples of online political activism abound:

Another, somewhat startling, example, is a message posted on the Internet on December 16, 1994, calling for nationwide protests against the Republican Party's Contract with America. The message accuses the Contract with America of being, in effect, class war, race war, gender war, and generational war, and urges recipients to "mobilize thousands of demonstrations in local communities across the nation," "fill the jails by engaging in acts of civil disobedience," and engage in other disruptive actions (see Appendix A for the full text of the message). Yet another example is a message posted on the same date entitled, "Protest: GOP '96," which begins the process of organizing mass protests against the 1996 Republican National Convention in San Diego. The message states (see Appendix B for full text):

Various fringe groups are beginning to exploit the Internet. These include:

According to the Wall Street Journal,

Still other kinds of interest groups have moved online. Groups of conspiracy theorists exchange e-mail explaining their often bizarre theories about conspiracies conducted by the U.S. government in general and DoD in particular. A much better organized gr oup, the Mutual UFO Network (MUFON), has its own computer network with a gateway to the Internet. Much of the traffic on this network refers to U.S. military operations that members believe relate to investigations and cover-ups of UFO-related incidents, and other messages contain details on MUFON's efforts to conduct surveillance of DoD installations and to obtain information on UFOs that they believe exists in classified form.

The relatively more advanced role being played by the Internet in domestic U.S. politics provides a glimpse of what may happen in other nations in the future. Their different political systems, however, may change the precise nature of the Internet's role from what it is in the U.S., but its energizing effect is likely to be universal.

The Internet and International Political Activism

Numerous commentators and activists believe that the Internet will increasingly play a catalytic role in international affairs:

The Internet has been playing an increasingly important role in international politics. One highly significant effect of Internet use overseas has been to circumvent the informational controls imposed by authoritarian regimes on their citizens:

This is more than just potential. In Asia, for example, according to the Wall Street Journal,

And elsewhere:

In addition, the Internet has played in important role in recent and ongoing conflicts. For example:

A very significant use of the Internet is by international protest groups and political activists:

One example of this phenomenon in Europe is an Internet mailing list (e-mail-based conference) called "Counterev-L:" Another example in Europe is the use of "electronic mailboxes" (i.e., BBS's) by neo-Nazi groups in Germany:

Yet another example is the use of computer networks by a Mexican underground group:

Apparently, the Zapatistas have attempted to use the Internet to deceive:

Elsewhere in Latin America, the Internet has actually been used by national governments as a tool of statecraft:

The largest and most active international political groups using the Internet appear to be the San Francisco-based Institute for Global Communications (IGC) and the Association for Progressive Communications (APC). As such, a review of the IGC can provide a good perspective on the breadth of DoD-relevant information available on the Internet. According to a text file placed on the IGC's publicly accessible Internet site

Although IGC/APC is clearly a left-wing political organization, without actually joining IGC and reading its message traffic, it is difficult to assess the nature and extent of its members' actual real-world activities. Some of its conferences, however, a ddress the following subjects:

There are also "alternative news sources" emerging overseas, that can play a significant, if slanted, role in filling gaps left by the reports issued by the mainstream news media. The most extensive set of alterative news networks appears to be operated b y the IGC. According to an IGC document (Appendix):

IGC's General News Services Include:

IGC's region-specific news services include:

Latin America Africa Middle East

  • Leb-Net Digest (Lebanon)
  • Challenge - "a Jerusalem-based bimonthly English-language magazine written by Israelis, Palestinians and internationals... which reflects the diversity of opinions on the Israeli left."
  • The Other Front - "...a weekly review of the Israeli press... focusing on the peace camp, the Right, and the center of the political spectrum."

    Eastern Europe

    Asia

    Some Predictions

    The following predictions are offered by the author, covering the next five to twenty years:

    New Political Parties Operating Though the Internet will Emerge The convergence of large numbers of people of similar political persuasion through the Internet eventually will cause the development of political blocs, or parties, whose only means o f interaction is through the Internet. Virtual conventions will be held over the Internet, where party platforms are agreed upon, and candidates for office are determined by vote. These activists will then interface with the "physical" world by running fo r elective office, representing an electronic constituency. Virtual political parties of every type will be ad-hoc and may not be institutionalized for long periods of time like conventional parties; they may be orientated toward single issues or just a f ew issues, and thus they may dissolve once the issues are resolved to their satisfaction. They will also not recognize any political or geographic boundaries. Electronic parties will transcend local, state, and even national borders. Membership in and act ivism on behalf of these parties will occur on a global scale. They will increasingly make their presence felt in the internal political affairs of nations and in international affairs. The proliferation of these parties will also make the political scene much more complex, and multiple simultaneous political wars will occur in cyberspace. Due to the almost instantaneous transmission of news about current events to members and the very rapid development of responses to them via e-mail, these parties will be able to react almost immediately to developments that relate to their interests. This reactive speed will afford them a degree of influence that is disproportionately strong relative to their actual numbers.

    Although it will be essentially impossible to enforce party discipline in these semi-formal, loosely defined organizations, considerable political momentum will be achieved when large numbers of members support particular positions. Single-issue coalition s between different parties with common interests will add to their potency. Financing would also be problematic, since members may be reluctant to transmit funds to a virtual "treasurer" for a party that might go out of existence without warning. However , these parties will have modest financial requirements compared to current conventional political parties, since most of their operations will occur over the Internet. The only significant costs will be incurred by activities through which party leaders interface with the "real world" of Congress and the White House. Lobbying, advertising, membership drives, polling, and most other party activities will occur almost exclusively on the Internet at almost negligible financial cost.

    Political groups whose operations are coordinated through the Internet will be vulnerable to having their operations disrupted by false messages inserted by opposing groups. This will encourage the proliferation of encrypted messages. However, these group s will face the dilemma that encrypting their messages excludes the wider audience, from which they hope to elicit sympathy and support.

    The monopoly of the traditional mass media will erode. No longer will the news editors and anchorpersons of television networks and newspapers solely determine what the mass audience learns and thinks about current events. Raw news reports from loc al, national, and international news wires and alternative news sources, and from unaffiliated individual observers on the scene of events acting alone, will be accessible by all Internet users. The filtering and slanting of the news currently performed b y traditional media will give way to some extent to direct consumption of un-analyzed information by the mass audience, diminishing the influence now enjoyed by those media An increasingly skeptical audience will be able to compare raw news reports with t he pre-digested, incomplete, out-of- context, and sometimes biased renditions offered by television and newspapers. Some of the mass media will attempt to reassert their traditional roles on the Internet, and they will fail, because they will not have any advantage over their audience. Another consequence of this is that the average consumer of news on the Internet will have a much wider cognizance of current developments worldwide than currently, and will be more likely to have an opinion on overseas sit uations. This is not to say that the traditional mass media will lose their audience and become insignificant. They will continue to play a major role in the national news flow. However, they will lose considerable ground to alternative sources and alternative int erpretations circulating on the Internet.

    Members of Congress and Federal Agency officials will be inexorably drawn into the Internet. When members of Congress who do not currently have a presence on the Internet realize that other members (who may be political competitors or enemies) do h ave a presence on the Internet, they will want to join themselves. Particularly when they understand that they are being attacked in the electronic political debates and there is no one in cyberspace to defend them, or even worse, that they are not being discussed at all, they will not be able to avoid joining. Remaining out of the Internet will increasingly be recognized as a strategic weakness and a sign of being behind the times. The same phenomenon will affect officials in the Executive Branch of the Federal Government. Increasing demands for public accountability will draw them into the Internet too, beyond simply posting news releases and other documentation online. Members of Congress and senior Federal officials will require staffs just to monitor and respond to the traffic.

    Text-oriented e-mail will be replaced by video/audio messages. As a result of reductions in the size and cost of high quality video cameras and improvements in video data compression technology, all personal computers in the future will be equipped with small video cameras, much as each computer today has a mouse. At the same time, the capacity of the communication links connecting personal computers to the Internet will greatly expand, due to replacement of twisted-pair copper telephone wires with fiber optic cables. These two trends will allow Internet users to compose messages consisting of compressed full-motion color video images of themselves speaking. When a user wants to send a message, he or she will first prepare a script and then speak t he words for the camera while reading them from the computer screen like a teleprompter. The resulting data file will then be uploaded into the Internet and played back by all recipients using standard video playback hardware/software with which all compu ters will be equipped. Although some users will prefer the anonymity of text-oriented e-mail, many others will find the urge to let the world see what they look like and hear what they sound like irresistible. The addition of the visual and audio dimensio ns to computer-mediated communications will greatly expand the content of messages, since facial expression, tone of voice, body language, race, nationality, gender, and age all convey much information that is lost when flat text is used. Even today, a ty pe of sign language has evolved in e-mail that attempts to make up for this. For example, the icon ;-) when viewed by tilting one's head to the left, resembles a face winking and smiling; the symbol is used to connote "grin," a good-natured add ition to signify that the message is sent in friendship, even if it is critical or sarcastic. When this iconography is replaced by full-motion color video with sound, the emotional impact and intensity of political debate on the-Internet will be greatly m agnified.

    Politically oriented groups will realize the propaganda potential of video on the Internet, and will produce and disseminate video clips supporting their point of view. Internet users will have available to them a wide variety of political advertisements in the form of video files. Opposing groups will engage in video propaganda wars entirely within the Internet medium.

    The Internet will be used as a tool of statecraft by national governments. The use of the World Wide Web portion of the Internet by the Peruvian and Ecuadorian governments is highly significant. Those nations, not renowned for their technological s ophistication, have been the first to bring international diplomacy officially into the online world. Although many governments currently have an official presence on the Internet, they provide only standard embassy-type public affairs statements, with in formation about their populations, cultures, industries, and businesses. In the future, as more governments recognize the strategic value of this new medium for conveying their message, they will use it as an additional tool in the political process. That is, the current type of information placed on the Internet by official government organizations will be supplemented with politically-oriented material conveying argumentation favorable to their respective positions on issues important to them. When one country involved in a dispute with others begins to use the Internet in this way, and the other countries become aware of this, a catalytic effect will occur, whereby all involved countries enter into the electronic debate in an official way.

    The Internet will play an increasingly significant role in international conflict. Political discussions among the members of the online public at large, and real-world activities of national leaders, representatives of electronic political parties and interest groups, world bodies such as the U.N., commercial enterprises, and individual political activists, will be energized by the Internet. Current information about conflicts placed on the Internet in real time by on-the-scene observers and alter native news sources will be voraciously devoured by the world audience and will have an immediate and tangible impact on the course of events. Video footage of military operations will be captured by inexpensive, hand-held digital video cameras operated b y local individuals, transformed unedited into data files, and then uploaded into the global information flow, reaching millions of people in a matter of minutes. Public opinion and calls for action (or calls to terminate actions) may be formed before nat ional leaders have a chance to develop positions or to react to developments. These factors will greatly add to the burden on military commanders, whose actions will be subjected to an unprecedented degree of scrutiny.

    Assessment

    Political Roles

    While there is already a great deal of political use of the Internet domestically and internationally, there is likely to be a significant increase in the scale and sophistication of such use in the coming years. Due to the differences in concentration of Internet use between different areas of the world, the impact of the Internet in directly influencing public opinion is likely to be heaviest in the U.S., less in other parts of the developed world such as Europe, and still less in the undeveloped world. Individual activists operating in less-developed countries, though, are likely to bring the Internet with them in the form of laptop computers that can access the Internet through any telephone line. Information brought into those countries through the s mall numbers of Internet access points can be spread locally through more traditional methods such as print, radio broadcast, and word of mouth. The activists will also be able to use the Internet to disseminate information to the rest of the world and to help coordinate their activities.

    The Internet is clearly a significant long term strategic threat to authoritarian regimes, one that they will be unable to counter effectively. News from the outside world brought by the Internet into nations subjugated by such regimes will clash with the distorted versions provided by their governments, eroding the credibility of their positions and encouraging unrest. "Personal" contact between people living under such governments and people living in the free world, conducted via e-mail, will also help achieve a more accurate understanding on both ends and further undermine authoritarian controls. Information about violations of human rights and other forms of oppression will be increasingly conveyed to the outside world by the Internet, helping mobili ze external political forces on behalf of the oppressed. It is thought by some analysts that the concepts of "national sovereignty" and "nation state" are becoming less relevant due to greatly increased economic, political, and cultural linkages that cut across national boundaries. To the extent that this is tr ue, the Internet will play an important role, since it is the medium through which an increasing volume of these types of linkages will take place.

    Intelligence

    The Internet is a potentially lucrative source of intelligence useful to DoD. This intelligence can include:

    John Anderson's concept for using the Internet to provide early warning of impending security threats has a great deal of merit. Internet message traffic about developing situations tends to precede news and intelligence reporting, since the individuals w ho originate that traffic are not constrained by the resource limitations to which news and intelligence organizations are subject. Those organizations must prioritize their efforts, focusing on what appears to be the most important items of the moment. I ndividual observers overseas who have access to the Internet can write about anything that interests them. It is likely that routine monitoring of messages originating in other countries would help provide strategic warning of developing security threats that would be of concern to the United States.

    At the same time, it should be noted that a great deal of the message traffic on the Internet is idle chit-chat with no intelligence value whatsoever, a veritable "Tower of Babble." Monitoring of that traffic would need to be supported by automated filter s that pass through for human analysis only those messages that satisfy certain relevance criteria. It is also important to note that the accuracy of much of the information on the Internet would be suspect: "Information and disinformation about breaking events are pretty raw on the Net. That's the point. You don't know what to think of any particular bit of information, how to gauge its credibility... You never really know how to gauge the credibility of the nightly news or the morning paper, either..."[Rheingold]

    Thus new means of validating information received in this way would be needed. Alteratively, news reports on the Internet could be used to cue higher confidence means of U.S. intelligence collection, by alerting us to potentially important factors and all owing us to orient and focus our collection more precisely.

    Beside being used to develop early warning of developing conflicts or the beginnings of new global trends or "sea changes," the Internet can be used at the opposite end of the spectrum: to obtain pinpoint information about specific matters of interest. Ne tworks of human sources with access to the Internet could be developed in areas of security concern to the U.S., and these sources could be oriented to seek specific needed information. If constructed and managed correctly, such a system could be much mor e responsive and efficient than the current complex, unwieldy intelligence tasking and collection processes we must use. We might even consider cultivating the capability to perform strategic reconnaissance "by modem." This approach could never replace of ficial DoD intelligence collection systems or services, but could be a useful adjunct.

    The Internet can also serve counterintelligence purposes. For example, a message posted recently in an Internet discussion group for left-wing political activists repeated for their benefit an Associated Press article about an upcoming U.S. Army Special O perations Command training exercise directed at the (empty) St. Moritz Hotel in Miami Beach (see Appendix C).

    If it became widely known that DoD were monitoring Internet traffic for intelligence or counterintelligence purposes, individuals with personal agendas or political purposes in mind, or who enjoy playing pranks, would deliberately enter false or misleadin g messages. Our analysis function would need to account for this.

    Support to Policy Making

    Beyond intelligence, the insights and analyses of thoughtful overseas observers such as educators, former politicians, local journalists and officials of other governments could be very useful to U.S. policy making. E-mail discussions about the likely con sequences of various policy approaches to security problems could help improve the quality of U.S. policy making. A great deal of "brain power" exists on the Internet, and if it could be harnessed and channeled for productive purposes, it might be a usefu l addition to DoD's informational and political assets. Any such use, of course, would have to be protected by appropriate security measures.

    Support to Civil Affairs Programs

    The Internet has substantial value to the Civil Affairs community in helping to establish contacts and closer working relationships with non-governmental organizations. In pursuit of the goal of minimizing the U.S. government's role in executing civil sec tor programs in favor of a stronger role by non-military organizations, the Internet can be used to accelerate and strengthen activities among all parties. In addition, a project is underway to identify public online information bases accessible through t he Internet that contain data useful to Civil Affairs programs. A substantial volume of relevant information has been found.

    Offensive Uses

    Just as the U.S. could be vulnerable to disinformational e-mail, politically active groups using the Internet could be vulnerable to deceptive messages introduced by hostile persons or groups. Far-right groups and far-left groups tend to watch each other, and it is likely that "moles" will obtain access to the other camps' networks for the purpose of disrupting their operations. This would tend to weaken the protection afforded by coding or encrypting messages.

    Increasingly, officials in national governments, foreign military officers, business persons, and journalists, are obtaining access to the Internet and establishing individual e-mail addresses. There is even a commercial service that will shortly offer ac cess to an online database of the names, organizational titles, phone/fax numbers, and Internet e-mail addresses of virtually all government officials in all countries. Using this information, it would be possible to employ the Internet as an additional m edium for Psychological Operations (Psyops) campaigns. E-mail conveying the U.S. perspective on issues and events could be efficiently and rapidly disseminated to a very wide audience.

    The U.S. might be able to employ the Internet offensively to help achieve unconventional warfare objectives. Information could be transmitted over the Internet to sympathetic groups operating in areas of concern that allows them to conduct operations them selves that we might otherwise have to send our own special forces to accomplish. Although such undertakings would have their own kinds of risks, they would have the benefit of reducing the physical risks to our special forces personnel, and limiting the direct political involvement of the United States since the actions we desire would be carried out by indigenous groups.

    Roles During Conflict

    Even if the actual presence of the Internet in the location of a conflict is very limited, the widespread access to Internet available in the U.S. and other parts of the developed world will provide a medium over which political debate and activism relate d to that conflict can occur. Thus the Internet can indirectly play an important role in the way the world deals with a conflict, without having substantial physical presence within the conflict. The Internet can play an important positive role during fut ure international crises and conflicts. In the chaotic conditions usually present in such situations, normal government and commercial reporting channels are often unreliable or unavailable, and the Internet might be one of the few means of communication present. Some of its uses might include:

    In order to use the Internet most productively for such purposes, it would be necessary for DoD to address it directly and explicitly as an integral asset, rather than as an uncontrollable element of the environment whose role is determined by happenstanc e or as an afterthought. If viewed as a resource and systematically integrated into our planning and operations, the Internet can make some important contributions to conflict management and assuring the success of U.S. foreign policy.

    Recommendations

    NOTE: The recommendations listed below should be carried out only in full compliance with the letter and the spirit of the law, and without violating the privacy of American citizens

    Prepared by Mr. Charles Swett
    OASD(SO/LIC) Policy Planning
    x35208
    17 April 1995

    REFERENCES

    Howard Rheingold, The Virtual Community; Homesteading on the Electronic Frontier (New York: Harper Collins, 1993) Marion Long, "We Are The World," Net Guide (December 1994), pp. 55-66

    (no author given), The Internet Unleashed (SAMS Publishing, 1994)

    Christina Maxwell and Czeslaw Jan Grycz, The New Riders ' Official Internet Yellow Pages (Indianapolis, Indiana: New Riders Publishing, 1994) Evan I. Schwartz, "Power to the People," Wired Magazine (December 1994), pp. 88-92

    Kevin Cooke and Dan Lehrer, "The Whole World Is Talking," The Nation (July 12, 1993), pp. 60-64 Mike Holdemess, "Power to the People-by Modem," The Independent (reproduced in World Press Review) (February, 1993), pp. 44 Jolyon Jenkins, "Cyberthreat," New Statesrnan & Society (7 May 1993), pp. 29-30

    James H. Snider, "Democracy On-Line," The Futurist (September-October 1994), pp. 15-19

    Richard J. Varn, "Jeffersonian Boom or Teraflop?" Spectrum (Spring 1993), pp. 21-25

    (unattributed), "The PEN is Mighty," The Economist (February 1st, 1992), pp. 96

    Andre Bacard, "Electronic Democracy: Can We Retake Our Government?" The Humanist (July/August 1993), pp. 42-43 (unattributed), "Russia On-Line," unknown magazine, obtained from database search

    Jon Katz, "The Times Enters the Nineties; Doesn't Like It Much," New York (June 27 - July 4, 1994), pp. 26-29
    John Katz, "Bulletin Boards: News From Cyberspace," Rolling Stone (April 15, 1993), pp. 35-77

    Dave Kopel, "Defend Your Rights," American Hunter (undated), pp. 14-70

    (unattributed), "Lobbying Via Computer," Washington Technology (December 8, 1994), pp. 3 (Latinonet)
    (unattributed), "The War Of The Webs," Washington Technology (February 23, 1995), pp.3

    Jared Sandberg, "Fringe Groups Can Say Almost Anything And Not Worry About Getting Punched," The Wall Street Journal (December 8, 1994), pp. B1-B4)

    David P. Hamilton, "Asians Taste Free Speech On Internet," The Wall Street Journal (December 8, 1994), pp. Bl-B4

    Larry Press, "Wide-Area Collaboration," Communications of the ACM (December 1991), pp. 21-24

    Howard Fineman, "The Brave New World of Cybertribes," Newsweek, February 27, 1995, pp.30-33

    U.S. Army Intelligence, "Computer Links Strengthen German Neo-Nazis," (unclassified) (15 December 1994)

    U.S. Army Intelligence, "Technical Applications For Insurgents," (unclassified) (3 August 1994)

    Tod Robberson, "Mexican Rebels Using A High-Tech Weapon; Internet Helps Rally Support," The Washington Post (February 20, 1995)

    APPENDIX A

    A CALL TO ACTION

    Newsgroups. misc.actlvlsm.progressive Path: msunews!uwm.edu!spool.mu.edu!howland reston.ans.net!gatech!news-feed-l .pe achnet.edu!news.duke.edu!zombie.ncsc.mil!golf!mont!pencil.cs.missouri.edu!rich From: dmc25(~columbia.edu (Dina M. Carreras) Subje ct: A CALL TO ACTION Message-ID: <1994Decl6.020504.11617~mont.cs.missouri.edu> Followup-To: alt.activism.d Originator: rich~pencil.cs.missouri.edu Sender: news(~mont.cs.missouri.edu Nntp-Posting-Host: pencil.cs.missouri.edu Organization: Columbia Universi ty Distribution: usa Date: Fri, 16 Dec 1994 02:05:04 GMT Approved: map(~pencil.cs.missouri.edu Lines:69

    ONE HUNDRED DAYS OF PROTEST

    The Republican "Contract With America" to make the poor much poorer and the rich much richer is rapidly taking shape. Means-tested programs, including food and housing assistance, and aid to the elderly poor and disabled, will be cut, and funding cappe d, so that monies will not increase when needs increase. Legal immigrants will simply be denied aid. At least half of welfare families will be cut from the rolls; others will be forced into workfare slots at earnings averaging $2.43 an hour. The Republ ican leadership, and some collaborating Democrats, plan a 3/5ths vote rule on tax increases, a balanced budget arnendment and laws to prevent reallocating defense savings to social programs, thus sealing in concrete the spending and tax advantages to corporations and to the rich.

    * The "Contract With America" is class war. The rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer.

    * The "Contract With America" is race war. Millions will be singled out.

    * The "Contract With America" is gender war. Millions of poor women will lose safety-net benefits; hundred of thousands of women human service workers will lose jobs. The reproductive rights of all women will be threatened.

    * The "Contract With America" is generational war. Poor children will be helpless victims.

    ***************************************************************
    *ONLYANUPSURGEOFMASSPROTESTCANAVERTTHISDISASTER! *
    ***************************************************************

    Concerned people all over the country must take the initiative. We do not need endless meetings and committees. We are already organized in countless groups and organizations. We can begin mobilizing, separately but in concert, in our local communities. I nform the press of your plans

    * Phone, write, e-mail, and send petitions to the White House and Congress by tens of thousands.

    * Mobilize thousands of demonstrations in local communities across the nation by union members, civil rights groups, women's groups, human service workers, students, and by sympathetic religious groups.

    * Fill the jails by engaging in acts of civil disobedience.

    * Organize senior citizens to come to the defense of poor children by picketing against cuts at welfare centers, prenatal clinics, and offices providing nutritional supplements.

    * Enlist clergy to hold funerals to moum in advance the children who may die from malnutrition or denied health care.

    * Use the legitimacy of the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 to register clients to vote in thousands if human service agencies to swell the vote of victims in 1996.

    PROTEST FOR 100 DAYS-We CAN turn the tide

    Richard A. Cloward, Professor Columbia University Frances Fox Piven, Professor Graduate School at UniversityCenter.CUNY 5 Phone 212/8S4-4053 Fax 212/854-8727 E-mail rac6@columbia.edu

    PLEASE COPY AND DISTRIBUTE

    Appendix B

    Protest: GOP '96 (originally San Diego press leas)

    Newsgroups: misc.activism.progressive Path: msunews!uwm.edu!vixen.cso.uiuc.edu!howland.reston.ans.net!news.starnet.ne t!wupost!golf!mont!pencil.cs.missouri.edu!rich From: kwr(~crash.cts.com (Keith W. Ramsey) Subject: Protest: GOP '96 (originally San Diego press release) Message-ID: <1994Decl6.020418.11476(~mont.cs.missouri.edu~ Followup-To: alt.activism.d Originator: rich(~pencil.cs.missouri.edu Sender: news~mont.cs.missouri.edu Nntp-Posting-Host: pencil.cs.missouri.edu Organization: /etc/organization Dis tribution: usa Date: Fri, 16 Dec 1994 02:04:18 GMT Approved: map~pencil.cs.missouri.edu Lines:53

    PRESS RELEASE

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
    December 15, 1995

    Upon the announcement of San Diego as the selected location for the 1996 Republican National Convention, local activists began gearing up to meet the GOP with a series of protests and demonstrations.

    With the GOP's historical opposition to women's equality, Lesbian & Gay civil rights, and freedom of choice, and with the party's support for Prop 187, insensitivity to environmental issues, and hawkish pro-war stances, the possibilities for expressing po pular dissent against Republican policies are virtually endless. For that reason, a local committee is forming to help facilitate the largest number of protests and demonstrations for the broadest range of issues possible.

    Called Protest: GOP '96, the committee seeks to serve as a local point of contact for organizations from across the country intending to demonstrate during the GOP Convention in August of 1996. Keith Ramsey, a co-founder of Queer Nation/San Diego who also assisted with the reorganization of ACT-UP/San Diego several years ago, is coordinating the formation of the committee. "My goal in organizing the group is to assist in any way possible any organization that wishes to demonstrate during the '96 conventio n." Ramsey expects the Protest committee to fulfill that goal by providing maps and timetables showing where and when other organizations have planned events and by serving as liaison with local law-enforcement agencies and other government bodies. "We ca n help groups in other regions secure the necessary local permits, make hotel arrangements, and by providing other similar services," says Ramsey. "And by maintaining a central information file we can curtail conflicts between organizations trying to asse mble at the same place and time which will make the scheduled demonstrations run more smoothly."

    Members of the Califomia Green Party, ACT UP, and the Radical Faeries have already been contacted and have expressed enthusiastic support for the project, as have a number of individuals not affiliated with particular organizations. Viewing the committee more as a networking resource than as a protesting group in its own right, Ramsey anticipates utilizing a number of media to disseminate information. In addition to establishing a telephone number and post office box, Protest: GOP '9 6 will have an account on the Internet, complete with an e-mail address and a World Wide Web home page accessible through Mosaic and other web browsers. Until those accounts have been set up, anyone needing information on the committee or who would like t o serve as a committee member should contact Rarnsey via e-mail at kwr@crash.cts.com

    Appendix C

    Newsgroups: misc.activism.progressive Path: interramp.com!psinntp!newsserver.pixel.kodak.com!news.ltw.org!newshost.marc
    From: "Dale Wharton" Subject: Special Forces practice assaults in Miami Message-ID:
    <1994Dec25.180456.10556 @mont.cs.missouri.edu> Followup-To: alt.activism.d Originator: rich@pencil.cs.missouri.edu Sender:
    news@mont.cs.missouri.edu Nntp-Posting-Host: pencil.cs.missouri.edu Organization: private Distribution: na Date: Sun, 25 Dec 1994 18:04:56 GMT Approved: map@pencil.cs.missouri.edu Lines: 16
    This article was forwarded to you by dale@dale.cam.org (Dale Wharton):
    - cut here
    _ _ _

    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

    From: bdolan@well.sf.ca.us (Brad Dolan)
    Newsgroups: alt.conspiracy
    Subject: Special Forces practice assaults in Miami
    Date: 24 Dec 1994 15:47:40 GMT
    Organization: The Whole Earth 'Lectronic Link, Sausalito, CA

    The Associated Press reported on 12/24/94:
    The U.S. Army ... is preparing to invade Miami Beach. [...]

    Between Jan. 6 and Jan. 14, troops from the U.S. Army Special Operations Command will climb and rappel off the empty 11-story St. Moritz Hotel, firing paint pellets in training exercises. The U.S. Army Special Operations Command includes Green Berets, Ran gers and psychological warfare specialists.

    Appendix D

    Path: interramp.com!interramp.com!psinntp!rutgers!uwm.edu!Vixen-cso-uiuc.edu!h From: atsQlocust.cic.net (Arm The Spirit)
    Newsgroups: alt.politics.radical-left,soc.culture.mexican,soc.right.human Subject: Letter From The EZLN Date: 14 Feb 1995
    13:4 9:22 GMT Organization: ETEXT Archives Lines: 53 Message-ID: <3hqcd2$6m5Qspruce.cic.net> NNTP-Posting-Host: locust.cic.net Xref: interramp.com alt.politics.radical-left:21412 soc.culture.mexican:11274

    Letter From The EZLN
    February 11, 1995
    Chiapas, Mexico

    To the people of Mexico To the national and international press To the peoples of the world

    The Indigenous Clandestine Revolutionary Committee, General Command of the EZLN We have made a call to all of our brothers and sisters of Mexico to detain this genocidal war that the bad government is waging against us.

    The federal government is acting with lies, it is carrying out a dirty war in our villages. Yesterday around noon, 14 helicopters bombed the area around Morelia and Gamucha, as well as shot artillery fire in the area under Zapatista control, thousands of federal soldiers have penetrated into the interior of the jungle, via Monte Libano, Agua Azul, Santa Lucia, La Gamucha Champes, San Agustin, Guadalupe Tepeyac and others. They are surrounding us with death and ugliness. We, the Zapatistas, as troops and c ivilians, up to this point, have done everything possible to fall back, but now we do not have any other option except to defend ourselves and to defend our villages, thousands of civilians have left their homes.

    Brothers and sisters, the government of Ernesto Zedillo is killing us, it is killing children, it is attacking women and raping them. We ask the people of Mexico and all the people of the world to do something to stop this war.

    Again we ask you, brothers and sisters, don't leave us alone.

    We will act with dignity.

    Liberty, Justice, and Democracy.

    Fraternally,

    The Indigenous Clandestine Revolutionary Committee, General Command of the EZLN (Translated by Cindy Arnold, NCDM volunteer).