Chapter 7

APPLICATIONS/FUTURE TRENDS


Most people will identify a pager as a device which is used to keep the user in touch with others, but they usually are not aware of the many other benefits of having a pager.



BENEFITS OF USING A PAGER

Freedom

Carrying a pager can give a person the freedom of walking out of the office or home without leaving an itinerary or telling anyone where he is going, if he does not wish to.



Reduced Stress

A pager can prevent irritation, frustration, stress and sheer annoyance. Very frequently, one gets upset by such little things like missing a call, diminished peace of mind, a changed appointment or an urgent request. A pager helps avoid such unnecessary sources of agitation.



Increased Competitive Edge

In a competitive business environment, using pagers helps keep a company one step ahead of the competition. It assures one's customers that they can reach out for business or professional assistance anytime, thereby projecting a "customer care" image. Carrying a pager will ensure that one will not miss a critical, timely message that could mean a successful deal. A missed call could mean a missed opportunity. On the road and away from the phone, answering machine or voice mail, business people are afforded constant contact through a pager.



Peace of Mind

For parents, it can be sheer frustration or even a nightmare when their children's whereabouts is not known. Parents carrying a pager are always within reach by their children, and vice versa. Pagers provide immediate contact and peace of mind. For the chronically ill, a pager by the bedside could turn out to be a life saver as a reminder to take medication.\



Improved Productivity

A pager is one of the most cost effective and reliable tools for productivity improvement. It saves money by reducing wasted travelling costs. It earns intangible profits by making one's customers happy. It saves valuable time. Wasting or losing time is a triple loss — lost time means loss of money, loss of control and loss of confidence. Reducing or avoiding lost time is worth far more than just the time alone.





CURRENT APPLICATIONS

The majority of pagers are used for the purpose of contacting someone on the move. The most popular type of pager used for this application is the numeric pager which displays the telephone number to call back after alerting the paging subscriber.

Alphanumeric pagers offer the capability to receive a complete message or information/data. However, there are factors limiting its widespread use currently. First, the input device in the form of a PC/modem combination or a custom page-entry device designed to enter alphanumeric paging is not common or cheap. Therefore callers usually have to suffer the inconvenience of going through an operator to input their messages. This is time-consuming, labour-intensive and lacks privacy. Then, even if the input device is made inexpensive and easily available, it is still not as simple to operate as the telephone instrument. The industry awaits the development of a voice recognition device which will enable callers to send alphanumeric pages without the transcription process. At the receiver end, the alphanumeric pager when used on its own also limits the amount of information/data which can be displayed.

However, it appears that the use of the paging system to transmit information and data offers the greatest potential for the expansion of the paging industry. It promises wider, newer and more useful applications of paging at a very low cost. Listed below are examples of the newer and more innovative applications of paging for information/data transfer. Most of these are applied already, though not on as large a scale as the paging industry would like them to be.





NEW TECHNOLOGIES

To cope with increasing competition and demand for quality, up-market services, new transmission techniques and new coding formats are being developed which will increase transmission speeds/information rates and improve reception reliability and coverage. With improved speed and better pagers, the trend towards alphanumeric paging is inevitable, which in turn will bring about more data and messaging services.

The future points to pagers offering more features, better capabilities and taking on newer forms. There will also be wider, more innovative applications of paging, many achieved through combining paging technology with other technologies.

The paging market is also differentiating into low-cost, simpler consumer paging products and services; and higher-cost regional, national or international services and messaging/data transfer services.



One-Way Communication

One likely trend is for operators to offer advanced one-way data communications services, such as point- to-point and point-to-multipoint data transfers. Downloading spreadsheets to an end-user or a group of users is a good example. In this respect, a pager is essentially a wireless modem minus most of the ordinary functions of a normal pager. The implication of this trend is that pagers will become at least an optional feature of computer systems. Mobile data communications over a paging network will always have a competitive advantage over two-way systems because of lower costs to both users and operators. It will definitely find its niche in the market, especially with the advent of more software development to drive the data/information services.



Two-Way Communication

Even the traditional definition of paging as a one-way communication device may have to be revised when it sheds its passive role and becomes an active receiver offering two-way communication. Future pagers may compete more aggressively with other two-way technologies, such as cellular and PCN. They could either have a limited two-way capability such as acknowledgement upon reception of a page, known as acknowledgement paging, or a full two-way capability in sending and receiving data.





FUTURE TRENDS

With more than 51 million paging subscribers worldwide, major paging markets in the world, many of them in Asia, continue to expand rapidly. Emerging markets with huge population bases such as China and Indonesia are still far away from the high penetration rates experienced by economies such as Singapore and Hongkong, while countries like India and Vietnam have just started to join the rest of Asia's dynamic economic boom. The next three years are likely to see the doubling of the paging subscriber base in Asia.



Pagers

More pagers will be designed to look visually appealing and trendy as it is recognized that there is a large potential market segment other than the business community. For the personal use of those which include family members, women, students and sportsmen, among others, pagers integrated into belts, pens, watches, key chains, jewellery, credit cards and calculators are more attractive, especially if offered with extras such as composable musical alerts. Improvements in battery life will remove restrictions in physical size and weight of pagers in the future.

Pagers integrated into cellular phones and second generation cordless telephones (CT2) have already been developed and marketed, but in the future there will likely be more widespread usage of these devices. The alphanumeric pager in the cellular phone affords the user the capability to screen an incoming call, allowing him to determine if, when and where he should return the call. Integrated into CT2 handsets, pagers enhance their usefulness as they effectively add the capability to receive incoming calls on these phones, designed primarily for making outgoing calls only.

With the introduction of small radio modems, pagers are also being integrated into palmtop and pen-based computers. This overcomes the shortcoming of having limited display capacity when a pager is used on its own and it also opens up a host of new application possibilities, some of which are described in a later section.

Looking further into the future, we should be seeing more of sophisticated pagers such as those which can operate on more than one frequency (auto-scanning receivers). These will be useful when a user roams through multiple paging systems, pagers which support high speed voice transmission and pagers which can acknowledge reception of a page.



Retail Markets

Pagers in most Asian markets are generally available from outlets maintained by paging operators themselves whose main targets are business users – business services, health care, construction, sales/marketing, transportation, delivery services and real estate industries. Demands in such traditional segments in some Asian markets are reaching saturation point, and unless new segments or new services are developed, the industry would approach maturity quickly. Personal users form one of the potential segments which operators can exploit to gain higher penetration rates, especially in metropolitan markets. With marketing programmes to promote higher awareness of pagers and their benefits to consumers, service providers will be able to tap potential mass markets and enjoy the returns.

In parallel with awareness building, retail distribution strategies are being developed by some service providers as effective channels to reach consumers in mass markets with large numbers of potential new customers. In addition, retail is generally a relatively low-cost strategy because of commission structures, ability to move inventory and strong market power. This in turn offers a low-cost solution to consumers, a necessary condition to attract personal users.

For the convenience of users, pagers will be increasingly distributed through retail outlets of merchandising chains to tap the developing personal paging market. Pagers are now available in a variety of colours and form to appeal to parents and young people who would like to stay in touch with family and friends. They will become as common as a walkman radio, a camera and other consumer electronic products. Pagers in some countries are now available through mail order and even from vending machines. Retail has become one of the better strategies in increasing market penetration and consumer awareness, and it will continue to play an important role in the paging industry.



Enhanced Services

Paging services also will experience steady development from local to regional and even international markets. Most of the Asian markets cover mainly local requirements at the moment. Regional or national coverage can now be found in Australia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, and more recently, Indonesia. International services are now available between Singapore and Hongkong, both of which are linked with the USA, Canada and Mexico, with extension into Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia in the near future.

In terms of services available, mobile data and information services will definitely become a reality in many developed markets in Asia. Other new services proposed by operators in the USA include enhanced one-way services such as low- and high-resolution graphics, video, electronic mail, fax, digitized voice, the ability to encrypt messages and acknowledge reception of the message.



Paging Infrastructure/System

The trend in Asia is moving in the direction of integrated auto-access/operator-assisted paging systems as well as high speed signalling. This will give the best of both worlds. This trend is brought about by modernization of the telephone systems in most countries, the onset of new technologies which make better use of airtime, the hunger for more information and the demand for more and better services by the general public. Integrated auto-access/operator-assisted paging systems are more flexible and advantageous (than auto-access or operator-assisted systems on their own) in serving the demands and needs of the paging system subscriber.

High speed signalling is borne out of the market requirements for higher capacity of paging systems to cope with demands for alphanumeric and data transmission services. However, limited existing channel capacity poses a bottleneck to such revenue opportunities. Motorola's FLEX high speed paging code answers such a requirement without the need for operators to invest heavily in upgrading their existing systems. More discussions on FLEX can be found in Appendix C.





NEW APPLICATIONS AND SERVICES

Market statistics show that more and more people are using pagers as a cost effective and reliable communication device, and there is a definite trend towards users moving up from numeric to alphanumeric services. Information providers are increasingly looking into the possibilities of data broadcast to pagers as more and more people are using paging systems to transfer data to their remote computers. With the use of pagers getting more and more integrated into our daily lives, we will be greeted with a host of new and exciting applications.



Alphanumeric Paging

Although alphanumeric pagers are not new in the market they have been showing impressive growths in China, Indonesia and Thailand. In emerging markets where telephone penetration is relatively low, alphanumeric paging offers an excellent alternative to telephones. In other markets such as Singapore and Taiwan, low consumer awareness and resistance to high pricing of alphanumeric services are the primary reasons for low penetration of alphanumeric pagers. Absence of convenient input devices adds another dimension to the problem with alphanumeric paging in such markets. However, alphanumeric sales will pick up as soon as consumers reach the point where they understand and accept the cost and benefits of alphanumeric pagers. Rationalization of alphanumeric pricing will obviously expedite acceptance by consumers.

With alphanumeric transcription, a service in which voice messages are typed out and transmitted to alphanumeric pagers, the need for a convenient input device is eliminated. Markets where alphanumeric services are profitably enjoying good penetrations like Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and, to a smaller extent, Hongkong are all offering operator-assisted alpha services. While start-up costs may be high, service providers can easily work out the long-term numbers and find that margins are acceptable.

With alphanumeric pagers, operators can provide information such as news headlines, sports scores, betting results, weather and stock and forex market updates with the use of group calls which can sometimes be transmitted at off-peak traffic hours at a relatively low cost.



NewsStream® and Mobile Data Communications

In wireless E-mail, messages are sent through the paging network to a pager integrated into a small portable computer (e.g. palmtop). So instead of sending E-mail to a location, it is being sent directly to a person through a wireless data link. Motorola's NewsStream Advanced Information Receiver is a good example of such applications.

It is expected that the growth in this area will be tremendous in the next few years, especially with the trend towards decentralized corporate organizations and the introduction of small radio modems to fit into laptop and pen-based computers. Motorola has introduced Electronic Mail Broadcast to a Roaming Computer (EMBARC), a nationwide information network in the USA which permits the use of a receiver like the NewsStream Advanced Information Receiver (an alphanumeric pager specially built to integrate with palmtops as well as personal computers) to receive wireless mail.

Mobile data communications provided by a paging network can in the same way be used to send faxes directly to the paging system subscriber. Similarly, sales and pricing information, customers' file information, stock quotes, news headlines, weather forecast and any other important information can be updated constantly and remotely. A travelling executive's calendar built into a laptop can be kept updated remotely by the office. The wireless data link can also be used to turn devices on and off, be it a data collection instrument, light, pump, gate, alarm or advertising panel.

Mobile data communications will elevate the service level of paging operators to new heights. They will no longer simply be in the paging business, but also involved in mobile data and mobile information services. With the development of the new Telocator Data Protocol (TDP), paging can now be connected to the PC industry with a potentially enormous new user base. A pager linked to a PC is an intelligent pager, and consequently, it becomes much more resourceful than a dumb receiver.



Voice Mail

A voice mail system can be integrated with the paging system to provide a value-added service. Under such an arrangement, a caller inputs a voice message into a mailbox associated with the pager number. The system then alerts the paging system subscriber (usually tone-only types) and lets him know of the presence of a message in his mailbox. He can then retrieve it at his convenience.

Voice mail enhances the capabilities of pagers beyond their normal capacity. A voice mailbox used in conjunction with a tone-only pager allows the caller to leave a long and detailed message, which otherwise cannot be done with the memory limitations of normal pagers.

This voice message storage system is an attractive alternative to a tone and voice pager as the tone-only pager is very much more efficient in its usage of airtime. It also overcomes the problem of listening to voice messages from tone and voice pagers in a noisy environment.





PCN/PCS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR PAGING

Personal Communications Networks (PCN) are networks that allow mass communication between users who are, in general, mobile. In the last two years, interest in personal communication has increased tremendously and terms like PCS (Personal Communications System) and PCN have become buzzwords. The emphasis is on providing wireless communication, i.e. communication between people rather than equipment.

The paging network is one such system, albeit with only one-way capability. The PCN/PCS currently attracting a lot of attention and research efforts are:

  • 1. Those proposed based on the use of vehicular cellular mobile radio network technology and
  • 2. Cordless telecommunication system.

    With the anticipated flourishing of pocket-sized portable phones and multifunction "personal communicators" supported by these sophisticated PCN/PCS, what are the implications for the future of simple pagers?

    It is likely that the future remains optimistic for the following reasons. Paging technology is simple, low- cost but effective, satisfying most users' needs. It is also a mature service which is easily extended through combination with other technologies to provide new services. The proliferation of mobile cellular phones in the 1980s did not affect adversely the paging market, but instead enhanced it. Pagers are now commonly used as a call-screening device in complement to cellular. The widespread use of cellular raised the consciousness of people to the value of mobile communications. In the same way, it is anticipated that the effect of PCN/PCS likewise will not be adverse. In addition, paging has several advantages over PCN. With its access to large subscriber bases, paging can offer PCN a large initial source of subscribers. Paging systems are optimized to locate pagers and send messages and this will help extend PCN's handset location capability beyond larger metropolitan areas. Also, the good wide-area coverage of paging systems offers PCN the capability of wide-area messaging.

    Advanced paging and messaging services will be a range of services with a niche in the PCN market place. Though the future is hard to predict, paging will continue to be a viable service and a part of the alliance of personal communications services.




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    Copyright 1995, 1996, Motorola, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    Last updated: June 5, 1996